El Niño is a complex natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise significantly above their long-term average. This seemingly small change in ocean temperature sets off a chain reaction of atmospheric disturbances that can reshape weather patterns across the entire planet, potentially affecting billions of people in the most vulnerable regions of the world.

Occasionally, El Niño can escalate into what scientists refer to as a “Super El Niño.” These extraordinarily powerful events are relatively uncommon. In fact, there have only been around five such events since records began in 1950. The last Super El Niño emerged in 2015 and persisted until 2016, during which time vast swathes of the planet had to contend with catastrophic flooding, prolonged droughts and unprecedented heatwaves that pushed many ecosystems to their limits.

Scientists have recently raised the alarm about a new Super El Niño that appears to be gathering strength in 2026. If this event lives up to current forecasts, it could turn out to be one of the most destructive climate events ever recorded. If the ocean temperatures continue to climb at their current rate, some regions will almost certainly be faced with extreme and prolonged rainfall, leading to devastating flooding. Other areas will dry up completely, running the risk of severe water shortages and widespread crop failures. If conditions deteriorate as rapidly as some models suggest, the consequences for food security and public health could be catastrophic.

The impact of El Niño has historically varied considerably across different regions. During the last Super El Niño, the southern United States went through an exceptionally cold and wet winter, while the northern states experienced a much warmer and drier season than they had bargained for. Elsewhere, entire communities were wiped out by catastrophic flooding, while other regions watched helplessly as their water supplies dried up and their agricultural land turned to dust.

Scientists have established beyond doubt that Super El Niño events can cause global temperatures to spike dramatically. They have confirmed that 2024 broke all previous temperature records, making it the hottest year since measurements began. If the 2026 Super El Niño turns out to be as powerful as forecasters are predicting, 2027 could shatter those records entirely. Had scientists not set up advanced monitoring systems decades ago, they would not have been able to track these changes with the level of precision they have today.

In order to keep up with the rapidly shifting conditions in the Pacific Ocean, research teams have rolled out a sophisticated network of sensors and satellites designed to pick up on even the slightest changes in ocean temperature. They have been painstakingly piecing together data from multiple sources in an attempt to figure out not only how powerful this El Niño might turn out to be, but also what the long term consequences could be for ecosystems, economies and communities that are already struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. If governments around the world do not act on the warnings that scientists have been putting out, the window of opportunity to prepare for and mitigate the worst effects of this event may quickly close.